Present and Future Distribution of Apochloa molinioides and Trichanthecium wettsteinii in the Brazilian Campos Rupestres: Ecological Modeling for Climate‐Sm

ABSTRACT

High‐elevation ecosystems are among the most sensitive to climate change, responding more rapidly than low‐elevation environments. However, few studies have shown the effects of climate change on grass species in these environments. Among them, Apochloa molinioides and Trichanthecium wettsteinii (Poaceae) are notable for occurring in high‐elevation environments and for their potential use in ecological restoration. In this context, we evaluated the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of these species using MaxEnt modeling under current and future scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), focusing on the Serra do Espinhaço Biosphere Reserve (RBSE), Brazil. Seven environmental variables with a spatial resolution of approximately 1 km were selected. The models showed elevation as the environmental variable with the greatest contribution. Based on current conditions, the areas of greatest climatic suitability for both species are located in the central‐west, northeast, and southeast regions of Brazil, particularly at higher elevations in Minas Gerais and Bahia, along the RBSE. There was a gradual reduction in the suitable area for both species due to climate change. The areas with the greatest climatic suitability for the maintenance of A. molinioides and T. wettsteinii in the future were within the limits of the RBSE. Our model contributes to the protection and conservation of these species in the RBSE by identifying areas of high environmental suitability under current and future climate scenarios. This allows the prioritization of sites for conservation, supports decision‐making in restoration planning, and helps anticipate potential range shifts caused by climate change.