Prediction of Potential Habitats for Pholidota chinensis in China Based on the MaxEnt Model

Pholidota chinensis is a valuable medicinal epiphytic orchid in China. While its ethnomedicinal importance is recognized, the environmental constraints governing its distribution and its response to future climate change remain insufficiently understood. This study employed the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to identify dominant environmental drivers and project current (1970–2000) and future (2041–2060, 2061–2080) potential climatically suitable habitats under SSP245 and SSP370 scenarios. Using 184 filtered occurrence records and 11 screened environmental variables, the model achieved high discrimination performance (mean AUC = 0.9614 ± 0.0092). Annual precipitation and precipitation of the driest quarter were identified as principal predictors, reflecting a coupled water-temperature niche. Future projections suggested an overall expansion of climatically suitable areas, particularly under SSP245, and a northwestward shift in suitability centroids. However, these projections represent potential climatic suitability rather than confirmed future distribution, as establishment depends on dispersal capacity, host availability, and microhabitat conditions. These findings provide a scientific basis for conservation prioritization and climate-adaptive cultivation planning.