Predicting the Potential Distribution of Stachys fontqueri Pau (Lamiaceae), a Strictly Endemic Medicinal Species of the Moroccan Rif, Under the Effects of Climate Change for Sustainable Conservation

Stachys fontqueri is a strict endemic species of the Moroccan Rif that depends on specific ecological conditions. To understand the effect of climate change on the projected change in potential distribution under current and future climatic scenarios, ecological niche modelling was performed using MaxEnt algorithm based on 70 occurrence records, and 5 bioclimatic variables at a spatial resolution of 30 arc-seconds. To model the effect of climate change, four climatic scenarios were used, namely CSM2-SSP1-2.6, CSM2-SSP5-8.5, MIROC6-SSP1-2.6, and MIROC6-SSP5-8.5, for the period 2061–2080, and the Maximum Test Sensitivity Plus Specificity threshold was used to distinguish suitable from unsuitable habitats. The results demonstrated high model performance, with an AUC ranging from 0.921 to 0.930 and a TSS from 0.81 to 0.83. Three bioclimatic variables contributed significantly to determining the suitable potential distribution area of the species, namely Precipitation Seasonality (Bio15), Temperature Annual Range (Bio7), and Annual Mean Temperature (Bio1). The suitable area covered 3244 km2 under the current climate and is projected to decrease by 23.25% to 29.59% under future climate scenarios. This contraction of suitable habitat due to climate change could be exacerbated by human activities, thereby requiring urgent in situ and ex situ conservation measures to ensure the species’ resilience.