Predicting Climate Change Impacts on the Optimal Habitat of Rare Potaninia mongolica Maxim. on the Mongolian Plateau

The combined effects of global climate change and human activities are profoundly reshaping the geographic distribution patterns of rare and endangered plants in arid and semi-arid regions, accelerating habitat fragmentation and population decline, thereby posing a core challenge to biodiversity conservation. As a rare semi shrub endemic to the Mongolian Plateau, P. mongolica faces continuous population shrinkage due to habitat fragmentation and climate change caused by extreme weather conditions, overgrazing, and mineral extraction, leaving its survival status critically vulnerable. Based on data from 153 distribution sites, this study employed the MaxEnt model to predict the species’ optimal habitat range, analyzed key environmental factors influencing its distribution, and projected that by the 2050s and 2070s, its total suitable habitat will potentially expand northwestward with increased expansion rates as carbon emissions rise. Its distribution is mainly driven by the minimum temperature of the coldest month, the average temperature in the coldest season and precipitation in the warmest season, which conforms to the law of species movement to the northwest caused by climate warming.