DOI: 10.1002/ece3.73857 ISSN: 2045-7758
Predict Suitable Restoration Areas for Typical Vegetation Restoration Species on the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau Based on
MaxEnt
Ying Yang, Chen‐Di Wang, Yan‐Gang Yin, Dong Han, Yue Zhong, Bo Wang, Guo‐Ying Zhou ABSTRACT
Under global warming, the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau (QTP) ecosystem faces severe threats, and vegetation restoration is critical for ecological rehabilitation. Unlike previous studies focusing on endangered or invasive species, this research innovatively selects six typical vegetation restoration species (
Poa pratensis
,
Poa araratica
,
Poa pratensis
var.
anceps
,
Festuca sinensis
,
Elymus nutans
,
Lolium perenne
) and integrates species distribution modeling (MaxEnt), centroid migration analysis, and niche theory to systematically evaluate their restoration potential under current and future climate scenarios—advancing beyond conventional single‐species distribution predictions. Key findings: (1) Elevation (alt) and annual precipitation (bio12) are the dominant factors determining species distribution, with their combined contribution rates to the six species ranging from 46.6% (
L. perenne
) to 81.7% (
F. sinensis
), providing precise indicators for site selection in restoration. (2) Except for
L. perenne
, high‐suitability zones of other species concentrate in the northeastern QTP, with
E. nutans
having the largest suitable area (80.73 × 10
4
km
2
, 61% of total QTP area). Under climate warming, 80% of species (e.g.,
P. araratica
,
E. nutans
) show significant habitat expansion (e.g.,
E. nutans
moderate/high suitability zones increase by 90.79%/111.66% under RCP8.5 2070s) and an overall westward migration trend (e.g.,
F. sinensis
migrates 246.51 km southwestward under RCP8.5). (3)
E. nutans
exhibits the widest niche breadth (B
1
= 0.156, strongest adaptability) but high niche overlap with other species (e.g.,
P. araratica
vs.
P. pratensis
,
D
= 0.75), indicating a potential competition risk requiring field validation when mixed‐sown in resource‐limited areas. This study applies a multidimensional assessment framework that integrates climate response, spatial migration, and niche interaction to QTP vegetation restoration, providing a scientific basis for species selection and configuration with important practical implications for climate‐resilient ecological restoration.