DOI: 10.3390/buildings16214235 ISSN: 2075-5309

Pre-Empirical Design Validation of BIM–AI Construction Management Models: A Monte Carlo Framework for Effect Recoverability and Sample-Size Adequacy

Emir Maslak, Nazim Manić, Vesnera Šerifi, Izet Cama, Veis Šerifi

BIM–AI construction management studies increasingly use multivariate models in which theoretically important relationships may be weaker than dominant technology adoption paths. This study develops a pre-empirical Monte Carlo design audit framework for testing whether such relationships are recoverable before field data are collected. A five-construct BIM–AI architecture with 28 ordinal indicators was evaluated through the original 33-scenario design and three additional stress tests, yielding 48,000 Monte Carlo replications. The extension introduces a finer sample size grid, missing completely at random (MCAR) block missingness conditions, and score construction sensitivity. For β = 0.15, empirical power increased from 0.292 at N = 100 to 0.824 at N = 400 and 0.906 at N = 500. With 20% block missingness, power was 0.604 at N = 286 and 0.808 at N = 500. Principal component analysis (PCA)-based scoring produced only modest differences relative to equal-weight composites. The findings show that sample size, measurement quality, data completeness, and effect magnitude must be audited jointly. The empirical power recoverability map is proposed as a transparent model-specific planning tool rather than a universal minimum sample rule.

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