Potential Range Shifts of Exotic Plants: Insights From a Mining‐Affected River Basin in Southeast Brazil

ABSTRACT

The concurrent effects of climate change and anthropogenic disturbances, such as mining disasters, can significantly influence the distribution of exotic plant species, either by reducing climatic suitability for some taxa or by creating disturbed conditions that favor their establishment and spread. However, these interactions remain poorly understood. This study examines the potential future distribution of exotic plant species in the Doce River Basin, southeastern Brazil, a region severely impacted by the 2015 Samarco dam collapse. Using ecological niche models, we predicted the climatically suitable area for eight exotic species recorded in the basin and overlaid these predictions with the area directly affected by mining tailings. Our results show that most of the basin will retain suitable climatic conditions for these species, with Cajanus cajan , Citrus ×limon , Leucaena leucocephala , Pennisetum purpureum , and Psidium guajava showing relative climatic stability under both intermediate and high temperature increase scenarios. In contrast, Brachiaria decumbens and Desmodium adscendens are expected to experience losses of climatically suitable area under both scenarios, while Syzygium jambos shows reductions mainly under the high temperature increase scenario. Within the tailings‐affected area, climatically suitable conditions remained stable for most species, with reductions concentrated in these same taxa. The persistence of suitable climatic conditions in disturbed sites may still facilitate exotic species establishment and spread, increasing biological invasion risk. These results underscore the need for continuous monitoring and ecological restoration, and highlight the importance of incorporating soil conditions and anthropogenic factors into future models to better predict invasion dynamics in mining‐affected tropical ecosystems.