Populist parties as anchors of ‘democratic’ consolidation? Evidence from Ecuador’s Movimiento Alianza PAIS

Abstract

In 1998, Leonardo Morlino advanced the theory of ‘anchors of consolidation’, arguing that informal institutions can stabilise democracies with low legitimacy by integrating societal groups with weak democratic commitments. Drawing on the experience of the Italian Communist Party, he posited that parties may anchor citizens through an inclusion–moderation dynamic. This study tests that causal link in the context of Ecuador’s Citizens’ Revolution (2006–2017). Emerging from a political crisis yet witnessing party strengthening, Ecuador provides a unique setting to examine how radical party inclusion shapes democratic attitudes. Using Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) and Latinobarómetro data, we apply logistic and linear regressions, as well as a difference-in-differences design, to evaluate whether PAIS’s inclusion fostered greater democratic support among its followers. The study finds evidence of apparent improvement in democratic attitudes among PAIS sympathisers, but this outcome appears more likely to have stemmed from partisan bias rather than genuine attitudinal change. Nevertheless, the results indicate that the effects of PAIS’s inclusion on satisfaction with democracy in Ecuador parallel those observed for populist radical-right parties in Europe, highlighting cross-cultural and cross-ideological patterns in the way populist parties shape political values.