DOI: 10.12688/openresafrica.16832.1 ISSN: 2752-6925

Population Growth, Real GDP Per Capita, and Economic Welfare in Somalia, 1960–2024

Abdibasit Farah Hersi, Ismail Mahamoud Yousuf, Yahye Abdalle Jama, Abdihakim Hussein Osman
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Background Somalia’s nominal gross domestic product increased from approximately US$0.18 billion in 1960 to US$11.97 billion in 2024. However, aggregate economic growth may not reflect improvements in living standards, particularly in countries with rapid population growth. This study examined long-term changes in real GDP per capita and economic welfare in Somalia. Methods A descriptive longitudinal analysis was conducted using annual data from 1960–2024. Data on nominal GDP, population, and real GDP per capita in constant 2015 US dollars were obtained primarily from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators. Derived real aggregate output was calculated by multiplying real GDP per capita by population. Compound annual growth rates and growth decomposition were used to estimate the contributions of population and per-capita growth. Recent official poverty and human-development indicators were used to contextualize the findings. Results Real GDP per capita increased by approximately 0.6% annually, compared with population growth of about 3.0% and derived real aggregate growth of 3.6%. Population growth accounted for approximately 83% of the long-term increase in derived real aggregate output. The 1960 real GDP-per-capita level was first exceeded in 2010 and remained above thereafter. The strongest sustained improvement occurred during 2012–2019, when real GDP per capita grew by approximately 4.4% annually. However, the 2024 level remained below the 2017 peak. In 12 years, derived real aggregate output increased while real GDP per capita declined. In addition, 54.4% of Somalis lived below the national poverty line in 2022, 67.0% were multidimensionally poor in 2024, and Somalia ranked 192nd of 193 countries on the 2023 Human Development Index. Conclusions Somalia’s aggregate economic expansion has produced limited long-term improvement in output per person. Economic performance should therefore be assessed using real GDP per capita, poverty reduction, and broader human-development outcomes.

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