Population Density, Digital Connectivity, and Economic Resilience: A Regional Resilience Index for the European Union Regions

Digital transformation is portrayed both as a lever of territorial convergence and as a driver of polarisation between urban cores and peripheries, yet its effect on regional economic resilience has rarely been measured systematically. This study transposes the Economic Resilience Index framework from the national to the regional scale, building a Regional Resilience Index (R-ERI) for 236 NUTS2 regions of the EU-27 from Eurostat indicators, anchored in the capacities of absorption, recovery, and adaptation and measuring resilience as a capacity rather than as a realised shock trajectory. Two complementary models are estimated: a spatial Durbin panel with two-way fixed effects (2018–2023), spanning the COVID-19 pandemic and 2022 energy shocks, and an exploratory cross-sectional difference model exploiting regional artificial intelligence (AI) adoption data disaggregated by NACE branch (2023–2025). The results show that resilience is strongly spatially autocorrelated (Moran’s I between 0.66 and 0.74; p = 0.001); that digital connectivity generates a positive indirect effect on neighbouring regions despite a negative own-region effect; and that the synergy hypothesis—that digitalisation yields more resilience when combined with traditional sectors—does not hold robustly, the interaction being null in the panel and only marginally positive in the AI layer (p = 0.10). We conclude that digital connectivity is not, on its own, an automatic convergence mechanism, and that cohesion policy should account for each region’s sectoral structure and peripheral position.