DOI: 10.11648/j.ijefm.20261403.15 ISSN: 2326-9561

Population Ageing and Export Technological Sophistication: Nonlinear Mediation via Technological Innovation

Hongyun Kuang, Xue Li
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Consistent with the strategic emphasis of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China on high-quality trade development, this paper explores the impact of population ageing on export technological sophistication. While existing literature has extensively discussed the direct effects of demographic shifts on trade performance, the specific mechanisms—particularly the nonlinear mediating pathways—remain underexplored in cross-country settings. To fill this gap, this study uses panel data from 96 economies for the period 2013–2022 and employs a two-way fixed-effects model to empirically examine the relationship between population ageing and export technological sophistication, as well as its internal transmission mechanisms. The results reveal a clear inverted U-shaped relationship: moderate population ageing significantly improves export technological sophistication, whereas excessive ageing produces inhibitory effects. Consistent with Hypothesis 1, the inflection point is identified when the population aged 65 and over reaches 9.824%. Notably, this suggests heterogeneous policy priorities across developmental stages. Supporting Hypothesis 2, mechanism tests confirm that technological innovation serves as a nonlinear mediator. More specifically, the mediating effect is conditional on the stage of ageing: it is insignificant at low ageing levels but significantly positive at moderate and high levels. Quantitatively, the marginal mediation effect in the high-ageing stage (about twice that in the moderate stage) indicates that the indirect pathway via innovation becomes increasingly important as populations grow older. Taken together, these findings suggest that technological innovation is not merely a parallel outcome but an active transmission channel through which demographic change shapes trade competitiveness. This paper provides practical policy references for China to coordinate high-quality export trade development and population ageing governance, and also offers valuable implications for global policymakers amid accelerating demographic transitions. In particular, the results underscore the need for stage-specific innovation policies that leverage the demographic window of opportunity while mitigating long-run risks.

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