Political trust in crisis? An experimental panel study into the origins of subjective perceptions of structurally declining political trust

Abstract

The perception that political trust is in a deep crisis, driven by structurally declining trends, seems intrinsically tied to democracy. For decades, scholars responded by studying actual trends. Yet, actual trends can only partially explain the prevalence of the trust crisis narrative. Therefore, this study shifts the focus to perceived trends by comparing the actual longitudinal changes in political trust with citizens’ retrospective perceptions of these changes. We rely on observational and novel experimental data (n = 1882) from the Dutch LISS panel to investigate these incongruencies between actual trends and perceptions over a 16-year period (2008–2024). We find evidence for a bias in public opinion as past levels of trust are generally overestimated. By probing explanations from political science, sociology, and psychology, we find that this bias is primarily political rather than personal: how people remember their trust depends on whether their party governed, and reminding them who did corrects that memory.