Polarizing trajectories of colonial ideologies: A latent class growth analysis of historical negation and symbolic exclusion

Abstract

The impassioned advocacy both for and against Indigenous rights in recent years suggests a polarization of public opinion. Accordingly, we theorize increasingly divided endorsement of two ideologies that challenge Indigenous rights to material and symbolic equality—historical negation and symbolic exclusion, respectively (the ‘Dark Duo’). Using latent class growth analysis, we test for distinct classes of change in the Dark Duo over 16 years (2009–2025) among a national probability sample of New Zealand adults ( N  = 43,020). As expected, results reveal a subgroup of Progressives (76.84%) with lower levels of historical negation and symbolic exclusion that decreased over time and a smaller subgroup of Reactionaries (23.16%) with higher levels of these ideologies that increased over the same period. Demographic and socio‐political variables predicted class membership, and support for political parties varied across classes. Thus, the current study illustrates the presence and implications of ideological polarization towards Indigenous rights.