Pocketbook politics and climate action: How economic strain reduces support for green parties

Abstract

Why do green parties struggle electorally despite overwhelming public support for climate action? While macro-level studies suggest that green party performance is shaped by economic conditions, the micro-level mechanisms driving this relationship remain unclear. This paper investigates whether personal economic strain reduces support for green parties and reshapes climate-related political attitudes. Leveraging rich panel data from Germany (2016–2024), I combine long-term correlational analysis with a difference-in-differences design exploiting the war-related 2022 surge in consumer prices. Voters facing financial hardship consistently evaluate the Greens more negatively and shift their political attention toward inflation and economic growth, while deprioritizing climate protection. However, evidence on vote intentions is mixed. These findings contribute to debates on green party support and the distributive politics of climate action, highlighting the relevance of voters’ pocketbooks and the need for green parties to convincingly address material concerns to ensure electoral success.