Plant biosecurity beyond the border: Voluntary adoption of pest detection technologies in European nurseries

Abstract

Plant pests and pathogens may remain undetected during risk-based border inspections of consignments entering the European Union and spread through intra-EU plant trade. Nurseries are central nodes in this pathway: they can facilitate further spread but also serve as control points for post-border detection and containment. We use a discrete choice experiment with 343 nurseries in Italy, Romania, Germany, and France to investigate preferences and willingness to pay for volatile organic compound “e-nose” sensors. Respondents evaluated sensor alternatives against existing inspection practices, and choices were analysed using mixed logit and latent class models. The predicted probability of choosing a sensor alternative was 77.5%. Inspection costs, detection reliability, and time to receive results primarily shaped choices, while certification potential and ownership structure were considered less important. Nursery and operator characteristics offered limited explanatory power. These findings inform technology design and commercialisation strategies intended to support voluntary uptake of VOC sensors.