Perceptions of migration and integration in Germany: The role of regional context and migrants' origin

Abstract

A substantial body of evidence documents misperceptions among natives regarding the number of migrants and their integration. Using two experimental studies, we show that these misperceptions are context-dependent rather than universal. The first study examines whether the accuracy of natives' perceptions varies with the spatial scale at which they are elicited. People consistently overestimate the share of migrants, and this misperception does not depend on scale. In contrast, perceptions of migrant integration improve at more localized levels: natives underestimate integration at the national scale, but estimates become more accurate at the district and neighborhood levels. The second study shows that perceptions of labor market integration for both natives and migrants are generally inaccurate and vary across different migrant groups. Overall, our findings suggest that researchers studying (mis)perceptions about migrants should carefully consider the spatial context of their data. Misperceptions are more nuanced than previously recognized.