Patterns of division and warfare: Neighbouring kin groups and trans-border conflicts in the Eastern Mediterranean

This study examines the relationship between neighbouring kin group populations and the type and intensity of conflicts in the Eastern Mediterranean regional security complex. We test the proposition that the size of transborder kin group clustering is relevant to the type and intensity of conflicts. By examining a total of 194 distinct conflict dyads from 2014-2020, we identify that most conflicts are internationalized, including regional states and global powers and present higher intensity levels compared to other types of conflict. All trans-border conflicts fall into this category. Conflicts with medium-sized kin group concentrations present a positive association with high intensity levels. Intensity in conflicts with high trans-border concentrations is more evenly spread. Eight of the most-deadliest conflicts include trans-border linkages. Comprehensive data show that all high-intensity conflicts include important regional and international state actors.