Past and Future Shifts in Marine Species Distributions Across Two South American Large Marine Ecosystems
Maria Bas, Sofía Diéguez Díaz, Jazel Ouled‐Cheikh, Marta CollABSTRACT
Aim
To quantify temporal (Middle Holocene, historical and future) and spatial changes in habitat suitability for marine species in two South American Large Marine Ecosystems, and to evaluate the ecological consistency of long‐term Species Distribution Model projections using archaeological records as independent evidence of past species occurrences.
Location
Humboldt Current and Patagonian Shelf Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs).
Time Period
Middle Holocene (~8200–4200 years BP), present day (1850–2014), and a projected future warming scenario (2015–2099; SSP5‐8.5).
Major Taxa Studied
Marine fish, penguins and pinnipeds.
Methods
SDMs were developed for nine marine species using present‐day occurrence records and contemporary environmental predictors. Models were projected to Middle Holocene climatic conditions and to a future high‐emissions scenario. Archaeological records of fish, penguins and pinnipeds from the Middle Holocene were compiled and used as proxies for past species occurrences to evaluate model projections through time.
Results
Bathymetry emerged as a key predictor of habitat suitability for most species. Projections revealed pronounced temporal and spatial shifts in suitable habitat. Most fish species showed higher suitability at higher latitudes during the Middle Holocene, followed by contractions in the historical period and future projection. Penguin species exhibited heterogeneous responses, with several showing strong declines in future suitable habitat. Pinniped species displayed mixed patterns of contraction and expansion depending on region and time period. Comparison with archaeological records indicated that seven of the nine SDMs correctly identified suitable habitats consistent with Middle Holocene occurrences.
Main Conclusions
Zooarchaeological data provide an independent line of evidence to assess the temporal robustness of marine SDMs. Incorporating past climatic periods improves confidence in long‐term biogeographical projections and enhances understanding of species' distributional dynamics under climate change.