P090 Are we training enough dermatologists? A longitudinal analysis of UK dermatology training output relative to service demand

Abstract

Dermatology services in England have experienced sustained growth in clinical demand, driven by rising outpatient activity, increasing skin cancer referrals and expanding therapeutic complexity. While consultant workload pressures are well recognized, less attention has been paid to whether current dermatology training output is aligned with long-term service needs. The aim of this study was to examine trends in UK dermatology training output relative to changes in service demand and consultant workforce size between 2005 and 2025. A longitudinal national analysis was conducted using publicly available data from 2005 to 2025. Data sources included NHS workforce statistics, national dermatology outpatient activity indicators, urgent suspected skin cancer referral volumes, and dermatology training numbers reported by national education and workforce bodies. Temporal trends in training output were analysed alongside changes in service demand and consultant workforce growth. Ratios of service activity to consultant numbers were examined. Over the study period, dermatology service demand increased substantially, with marked growth in outpatient activity and urgent suspected skin cancer referrals. Consultant dermatologist numbers increased gradually but at a slower rate than service demand. Dermatology training output rose incrementally; however, this increase did not keep pace with the growth in clinical activity. Consequently, the ratio of dermatology service activity to trained consultants widened progressively, suggesting an emerging mismatch between workforce pipeline capacity and population-level service demand. Current dermatology training output may be insufficient to meet future service demand in England. Coordinated national strategies addressing training numbers, workforce retention and service redesign are required to align the dermatology workforce pipeline with projected demand and ensure sustainable service delivery.