Optimizing Household Waste Recycling Centre Network Reorganization in Hampshire

ABSTRACT

Local councils across the UK are facing sustained financial pressures, and Household Waste Recycling Centres (HWRCs) are being increasingly considered for closure to reduce expenditure. In 2024, Hampshire County Council, which operates the largest HWRC network in the UK, proposed closing either five or twelve existing sites. These plans represented reductions of £0.5 million and £1.6 million per year, respectively, to meet medium‐term budget targets. We analyze these proposals using a quadratic optimization model originally developed for Bavaria by applying it to Hampshire's network with postcode‐level population, travel‐patterns, and capacity estimates. Across three closure scenarios considered by the Council, we identify closure sets that surprisingly differ by only one facility, yet yield substantially improved performance: peak utilization falls by 40–60 percentage points, overloads are eliminated, and 90% of residents remain within 6.2 miles (five closures) or 9.6 miles (twelve closures) of an HWRC. Notably, the optimal closure sets form a strictly nested sequence enabling a stable multiyear closure path without policy reversals. Finally, we identify three regimes of network behavior that quantify when resident access and facility utilization remain resilient and when the network becomes structurally unstable: low‐impact (0–4 closures), manageable (5–12), and fragile (beyond 12). Overall, our results demonstrate how established optimization methods can provide rigorous, data‐driven support for ongoing HWRC reorganization under UK‐wide fiscal pressure.