Optimizing Ecological Zoning in Arid Oases Based on the Multivariate Ecological Security Index: A Case Study of the Kashgar Oasis, China

Global climate change and rapid urbanization have intensified ecological security risks in arid oasis regions, creating an urgent need for reliable ecological security assessment and spatial zoning to support regional sustainable development. Taking the Kashgar Oasis as the study area, this study combined the pressure-state-response (PSR) framework with the Mazziotta–Pareto Index (MPI) to construct a Multivariate Ecological Security Index (MESI), with the aim of reducing excessive compensation among different ecological dimensions and highlighting ecological weaknesses. Based on multisource spatial data from 2010 to 2025, we further examined the spatiotemporal evolution of ecological security, spatial relationships among ecological dimensions, and ecological security zoning. The main results were as follows: (1) Ecological security exhibited a pronounced spatial gradient, with higher levels in mountainous areas, intermediate levels in oasis areas, and lower levels in desert areas. High ecological security areas were concentrated mainly in mountainous regions, river corridors, and natural oasis areas, whereas low ecological security areas occurred primarily in urban expansion areas, agricultural development zones, and desert margins. (2) Ecological security changed substantially over the study period, following three successive stages: expansion of moderate-security areas, increasing spatial differentiation, and overall recovery, with the recovery trend becoming increasingly apparent after 2020. (3) The ecological dimensions exhibited marked spatial heterogeneity. Mountainous areas and river corridors were generally characterized by lower human disturbance, lower land desertification sensitivity, and higher ecosystem service capacity, whereas oasis margins and urban expansion fronts showed more complex spatial mismatches and potential trade-offs. (4) Six ecological security functional zones were delineated based on multidimensional ecological characteristics and the overall ecological security state, and differentiated management strategies were proposed for the respective zones. Overall, by jointly considering multiple ecological dimensions and their imbalances, this study links ecological security assessment, spatial relationship identification, and spatially continuous zoning, thereby providing an integrated analytical framework for identifying ecological weaknesses and supporting differentiated ecological management in arid oasis regions.