Optimization of Investment Structure: Driving Tourism Economic Growth in Kazakhstan (2003–2023)

For transition economies seeking economic diversification and macroeconomic stability, optimizing the allocation of tourism investments between hospitality infrastructure and cultural assets remains a critical challenge. The primary purpose of this study is to determine how these different components of capital affect the gross value added of the national tourism sector. The significance of the results was tested using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds approach over the period from 2003 to 2023. An error correction specification was used to examine short-run adjustment, while FM-OLS served as a supplementary estimator of the long-run coefficients. HC3 robust standard errors were applied after heteroskedasticity was detected. The findings provide qualified evidence of a long-run level relationship. Investment in accommodation and food services has a positive and statistically significant association with tourism gross value added. Investment in arts, entertainment, and recreation does not exhibit a statistically significant direct association in the final specifications. This result does not imply that cultural and recreational assets lack tourism value, as their contribution may operate through destination attractiveness, authenticity, visitor experience, and other indirect channels. The results emphasize the importance of coordinated tourism planning and stakeholder partnerships across the hospitality and cultural sectors. Given the limited sample size, these findings and their policy implications should be interpreted with caution.