Optimization of fire scenario selection at the preliminary stage of fire risk assessment in public buildings

The process of compiling a list of design fire scenarios for individual risk assessment in public buildings is highly labor-intensive and subjective due to the lack of formalized methods for selecting scenarios from a multitude of theoretically possible ones. The objective of this study is to develop and test a scoring algorithm for the formal selection of the most hazardous design fire scenarios during the preliminary stage of individual risk assessment in public buildings. Methods. Based on a synthesis of regulatory requirements and expert practices, five key hazard criteria were formalized. A detailed matrix with a five-level scoring scale was developed for these criteria, and a three-stage application algorithm was proposed. Results. Testing on a sports and fitness center demonstrated a reduction in the number of scenarios for subsequent mathematical modeling from 6 to 3 (by 50%), while retaining in the selected list all critical cases corresponding to the "worst-case" principle. Conclusions. The developed tool systematizes the expert's work, improves the validity and reproducibility of decisions at the initial stage, and allows resources to be focused on analyzing the most significant threats. Directions for further research are outlined, including validation on an extended sample of buildings and refinement of criteria weights using the analytic hierarchy process and Bayesian approach.