Optimal Capacity Allocation of Pumped Hydro Storage Towards Long-Term High-Penetration Renewable Energy Integration: A Case Study of a Coastal Power Grid

The integration of high-penetration renewable energy creates new requirements for cross-timescale peak shaving and for system robustness under extreme meteorological conditions. This study develops a dual-timescale capacity allocation method for pumped hydro storage (PHS), combining 8760 h chronological production simulation with monthly typical-day retrospective analysis. The model represents the operating limits of conventional units, nuclear power, hydropower, wind power, photovoltaic generation, tie-line exchange, and PHS energy shifting. On this basis, a stepwise capacity-sensitivity framework is established to minimize annualized comprehensive system cost while controlling renewable energy curtailment within a predefined planning threshold, rather than treating zero curtailment as an unconditional monthly hard constraint. Using long-term planning data from a coastal provincial power grid in southeastern China, the study compares the 2035 and 2040 planning scenarios. The results show that isolated typical-day models tend to overestimate PHS requirements because they disconnect chronological continuity and cross-day reservoir buffering. In 2035, the system presents a two-level seasonal capacity structure: 15,000 MW can support normalized operation in stable months, whereas the rigid boundary rises to 19,000 MW under extreme autumn high-wind conditions. In 2040, wind and photovoltaic capacity increase by approximately 20.01 GW compared with 2035, deepening low-net-load valleys and compressing seasonal regulation margins. Under the assumed planning boundary, the recommended PHS capacity converges to 23,000 MW. The proposed framework provides a practical reference for flexible resource planning in coastal power grids with deep renewable energy integration.