On the Edge of the Drop: Water Stress and National Security in Bulgaria in the Context of Marketing-Based Approaches to Adaptive Water Governance

Abstract

Water stress is increasingly recognized as a critical challenge for public governance, social stability, and national security. While it is often addressed primarily as a technical or environmental issue, its social, behavioral, and institutional dimensions receive comparatively less attention. This paper examines water stress in Bulgaria as a complex socio-political risk arising from the interaction between physical resource constraints, governance capacity, public behavior, and institutional trust. The study adopts an interdisciplinary analytical approach combining a structured literature review, comparative analysis of international water crisis cases, and an indicative empirical survey assessing public awareness and behavioral responses to water stress. The analysis highlights how deficiencies in institutional communication, transparency, and demand management can amplify societal impacts, even where physical water availability is not critically constrained. Building on these findings, the paper proposes an integrated analytical framework that structures water stress governance across three interrelated phases: prevention, crisis management, and long-term adaptation (the PCA model). Within this framework, marketing-based and behavioral governance instruments are conceptualized as mechanisms linking technical measures with public behavior and institutional legitimacy, rather than as substitutes for infrastructural or regulatory solutions. The results indicate substantial adaptive potential at the societal level, reflected in a willingness to change behavior that remains underutilized due to fragmented institutional signals and limited public trust. The PCA model is presented as an analytical, not causally tested, framework, offering transferable insights for adaptive water governance where critical infrastructure management intersects with social trust and behavioral change.