Oil Rents and Territorial Reconfiguration in the Energy Transition: Evidence from Maricá, Brazil

This study examines the influence of oil rents on territorial dynamics and urban expansion in Maricá (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) between 2012 and 2024, grounded in debates on the resource curse and extractive economies. It investigates the relationship between oil-driven fiscal expansion and land-use change using spatial analysis and Land Change Modeler (LCM) techniques. Results show sustained, predominantly horizontal urban growth, mainly through the conversion of anthropized land, especially Mosaic of Uses and Pasture classes. Between 2012 and 2024, the Urban Area increased from 53.31 km2 to 74.17 km2, corresponding to a net expansion of 20.86 km2 (39.14%). Expansion follows a spatially selective pattern linked to accessibility, land availability, and public investments financed by oil revenues. Although direct causality cannot be fully isolated, the temporal association between rising oil revenues and accelerated urbanization indicates that the expansion of municipal fiscal capacity occurred contemporaneously with significant territorial transformations. Even when occurring over altered land, urban expansion generates indirect pressures on environmentally sensitive areas, reinforcing the need to integrate extractive revenues into long-term territorial planning. In the context of the energy transition, these findings highlight the territorial and sustainability challenges associated with continued dependence on fossil-fuel revenues and underscore the importance of integrating low-carbon development perspectives into long-term territorial planning.