Offshore Energy Markets in the Baltic Sea Region and Maritime Logistics: An Indicator-Based Assessment of Structural Resilience

The Baltic Sea region combines offshore wind development, offshore hydrocarbon activity, maritime energy transport routes, and port-based energy infrastructure within a confined maritime space. This study examines maritime logistics as a structural enabler of energy-system resilience, with particular emphasis on Poland. A longitudinal, comparative, and indicator-based secondary-data approach was applied to analyse offshore hydrocarbon activity, Naftoport throughput, LNG deliveries, supply concentration, facility-level infrastructure utilisation, and the logistics requirements of offshore wind. The results show that average Naftoport throughput in 2022–2024 was approximately 130% higher than in 2015–2021. The concentration of crude-oil supplies to domestic refineries decreased sharply in 2022 but subsequently increased, with CR1, CR2, and CR3 reaching 50.7%, 81.9%, and 89.8%, respectively, in 2024. In the natural-gas system, recorded import and entry-direction concentration remained lower in 2024 than in the 2021 pre-shock benchmark. The average annual number of LNG deliveries in 2022–2024 was approximately 118.6% higher than in 2017–2021. In 2024, Naftoport’s indicative crude-oil utilisation rate reached approximately 91.6%, while the Świnoujście LNG terminal operated at approximately 98.4% of the nominal regasification capacity applicable in that year. Offshore wind represents a different logistics configuration, with approximately 8.4 GW in the principal Polish development portfolio and an illustrative annual electricity-output range of 29.4–36.8 TWh under 40–50% capacity-factor assumptions. The findings show that supplier concentration, recorded import-route concentration, facility utilisation, and logistics configuration capture different but complementary structural dimensions associated with resilience. The study concludes that structural resilience depends not only on infrastructure capacity and diversification, but also on network integration, operational coordination, storage and routing options, and specialised maritime logistics capabilities.