Occupational safety and health implications of future climate change-related developments and crises

Abstract

Climate change and climate action are reshaping the world of work, with profound but still insufficiently understood implications for occupational safety and health (OSH). Policy measures to mitigate and adapt to climate change can generate indirect impacts (both risks and opportunities) that may be as consequential for workers as direct climatic hazards. This project aimed to explore how climate action and climate change–related developments could affect OSH in Europe by 2050, and to translate macro-level foresight scenarios into sector-specific monitoring frameworks to support proactive risk governance. Building on a previous Phase 1 study that developed macro-level scenarios, Phase 2 applied foresight methods, expert workshops and literature review to identify plausible sectoral futures. It then co-developed indicators and monitoring frameworks for selected sectors, linking climate policies, technological change and labour market trends to potential OSH impacts. The analysis shows that climate action can modify exposure patterns, task organisation, and employment structures across sectors such as construction, agriculture, energy, and transport. New risks emerge from green technologies, changing supply chains and more frequent crises, while opportunities arise to redesign work for greater resilience. Sectoral monitoring frameworks can help stakeholders visualise how different futures may manifest in concrete work settings and where early warning indicators are needed. Anticipating the OSH implications of climate action requires moving from reactive crisis management to proactive, scenario-informed planning. Embedding foresight-based monitoring frameworks into policy and practice can support regulators, social partners and enterprises in identifying emerging risks, adapting prevention strategies and ensuring that the transition to a climate-neutral economy does not compromise worker health and safety.