Net-Zero Gulf Cities: A Coupled Systems Approach to Hot-Arid Urban Futures

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have pledged to achieve net-zero emissions between 2050 and 2060, yet their cities remain among the world’s most carbon-intensive, shaped by extreme heat, near-continuous cooling, desalinated water, car-dependent urban form and hydrocarbon-financed development. This Perspective argues that conventional sectoral decarbonisation strategies, while necessary, are insufficient because building performance, urban morphology, cooling demand, electricity generation, water infrastructure, transport, construction materials and waste management are interdependent. A simplified Net Zero City Equation, adapted from established whole-life carbon accounting principles, provides a conceptual framework for examining these interdependencies. Three structural paradoxes (hydrocarbon dependence versus decarbonisation, cooling demand versus energy and water decarbonisation, and net-zero ambition versus fragmented accounting and governance) help explain the challenges of transition. Four coupled intervention pathways identify opportunities for coordinated action: climate-responsive urban form and buildings; integrated energy, cooling and water systems; low-carbon mobility and circular material flows; and coordinated governance, measurement and finance. Implementation depends less on the availability of technology than on consistent accounting, economic incentives and institutional coordination. This approach is relevant to other hot-arid regions, provided it is adapted to local climatic, urban and institutional conditions.