Nationwide trends and forecasts in Alzheimer's and cerebrovascular disease-related mortality in the United States, 1999–2023: A CDC WONDER analysis
Ali Shan Hafeez, Saira Mumtaz, Laksh Kumar, Mubashara Amir, Rick Maity, Saad Ashraf, Aamir Khan, Muhammad Hassan, Asad Zaman, Muhammad Asad, Pramod Singh, Abdul Rafae Faisal, Arkadeep DhaliObjective
To describe nationwide mortality patterns related to Alzheimer's disease and cerebrovascular disease in United States adults aged ≥65 years and explore future trend projections.
Methods
In this retrospective study, we utilized the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research database (ICD-10 G30, I60–I69) to calculate crude and age-adjusted mortality rates per 100,000 population. Temporal trends were modeled using Joinpoint regression, and 10-year forecasts were obtained using autoregressive integrated moving average models. Subgroup analyses were performed by sex, race/ethnicity, census region, urbanization, and place of death.
Results
We identified 199,606 Alzheimer's disease–cardiovascular disease-related deaths. Overall, age-adjusted mortality rates peaked at 24.8 in 2002, reduced to 14.2 in 2013, and then rose to 18.7 in 2020 before dropping to 16.6 in 2023. Women exhibited higher age-adjusted mortality rates than men (20.1 vs. 16.0). Individuals of White and Black ethnicity bore the greatest burden, and the South and West recorded the highest regional age-adjusted mortality rates. These rates were consistently higher in non-metropolitan areas than in metropolitan areas. Exploratory projections estimate an overall age-adjusted mortality rate of 16.6 by 2033, with persistently higher rates in women, non-Hispanic Black populations, and among those residing in the West and non-metropolitan areas.
Conclusions
Despite substantial decline since the early 2000s, Alzheimer's disease–cardiovascular disease mortality remains high and unevenly distributed. Exploratory projections suggest that the burden will remain substantial, underscoring the need for targeted prevention, vascular risk reduction, and equity-focused dementia care.