Multi-Level Governance of Renewable Energy Transitions Through the Viable System Model: A Hybrid Evidence-Based Framework

Multi-Level Governance (MLG) frameworks effectively diagnose the complexity of regional renewable energy transitions but lack operational mechanisms for institutional implementation. This study develops a hybrid evidence-based architecture that integrates the Viable System Model (VSM) with computational intelligence and objective multi-criteria decision analysis. Methodologically, a systematic review following the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) protocol of 339 peer-reviewed articles (2015–2025) feeds a Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model that extracts K = 30 strategic topics (semantic coherence Cv optimized over K = 5–40), operationalizing System 4 environmental sensing. In parallel, a 1 km2 pixel-based spatial model integrates a National Conflict Index (INC, 2019–2024) with technical feasibility layers (Global Wind Atlas v4.0, Solargis, Servicio Geológico Colombiano) and applies CRITIC (CRiteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation) objective weighting and TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) prioritization (System 3 control). Robustness is confirmed through ±10–20% weight perturbation (Spearman > 0.92). Empirically, the framework reveals a localization paradox: approximately 68% of optimal wind zones (>9 m/s at 100 m hub height) in the Colombian Caribbean overlap with the highest national conflict quartile, narrowing a theoretical capacity exceeding 100 GW (50 GW offshore wind, 30 GW onshore wind, 42 GW solar PV, 1.17 GW geothermal) to roughly 24 GW of governance-viable capacity. Scenario calibration (Accelerated 80/20, Balanced 50/50, Justice-Oriented 30/70 technical/conflict weighting) demonstrates that System 5 normative orientation materially reshapes territorial prioritization. The framework advances VSM from a qualitative diagnostic metaphor to a reproducible governance architecture for high-variety regional contexts.