Multi-Indicator Remote Sensing of Water Quality Dynamics Across Contrasting Freshwater Systems in Türkiye: A Sentinel-2 and Landsat-Based Change Detection Framework

This study presents a multi-indicator remote sensing framework for assessing satellite-derived water-quality-related and trophic-state-related dynamics across four freshwater systems in Türkiye Egirdir Lake, Sapanca Lake, Catalan Dam, and Yuvacik Dam between the baseline (2015–2018) and recent (2023–2025) periods. Rather than providing a regulatory or use-specific satellite-based assessment of water-quality-related indicators, the study evaluates optically and thermally detectable surface water indicators derived from Sentinel-2 MSI and Landsat 8/9 imagery processed in Google Earth Engine. The Normalized Difference Chlorophyll Index (NDCI), the Normalized Difference Turbidity Index (NDTI), and land surface temperature (LST, applied to water surfaces) were used to detect change patterns through period-mean difference mapping (Δ-mask) and interannual time series analysis. Results reveal distinct spatial and temporal dynamics broadly consistent with the interplay of climatic, hydrological, and anthropogenic drivers. In the southern Mediterranean systems, positive ΔNDCI anomalies in littoral and inflow zones were associated with increasing summer LST, with Egirdir Lake exhibiting a statistically significant warming trend of +0.170 °C yr−1 (Mann–Kendall τ = 0.53, p = 0.029), interpreted cautiously as a physically plausible signal consistent with regional climate trends, suggesting elevated thermally mediated eutrophication-related optical risk. In the northern Marmara systems, satellite-observed patterns were more strongly associated with anthropogenic nutrient loading and morphological constraints, with turbidity-related optical increases concentrated in western and marginal zones despite relatively stable thermal conditions. As concurrent in situ measurements were unavailable, cross-sensor consistency checks and literature-based benchmarking were applied as alternative validation strategies. Across all four systems, positive ΔNDCI anomalies were systematically concentrated in shallow marginal and inflow zones, while ΔNDTI patterns varied by system, underscoring the role of littoral dynamics as early indicators of optically detectable water-quality deterioration and trophic-state-related change. The proposed framework offers a scalable, cost-effective approach for freshwater quality surveillance in data-scarce environments and provides direct support for integrated water resource management under Türkiye’s National Water Plan (2026–2036).