Monitoring and Assessment of Coastal Hazard Potential Induced by Reclamation-Related Subsidence: An Integrated InSAR and Coastline-Change Approach in Fangchenggang, China

Land subsidence in coastal reclamation areas has emerged as one of the critical hidden hazards for coastal cities. This paper presents an integrated InSAR and coastline-change framework for land subsidence monitoring and driving-factor analysis in coastal reclamation cities. Taking the Fangchenggang City, China, as the study area, we utilized 266 scenes of Sentinel-1A SAR images (2016–2025) from the European Space Agency (ESA) and applied time-series SBAS-InSAR to obtain a 10-year time-series monitoring result of land subsidence, with cross-validation against PS-InSAR showing an RMSE below 4 mm at four checkpoints. Furthermore, influencing factors were analyzed by integrating data on coastline changes, precipitation, and groundwater indicators. The conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) Seven distinct land subsidence funnels in Fangchenggang City from 2016 to 2025 were identified for the first time. Spatially, land subsidence exhibits significant heterogeneity, primarily concentrated in the coastal reclamation areas of the Qisha Peninsula and the Yuwan Peninsula, the maximum subsidence rate reached as high as −163.53 ± 4.90 mm/yr. Temporally, the subsidence rate in the study area shows a gradual deceleration trend over time. (2) The coastline change results from 1964 to 2025 reveal a three-stage temporal characteristic: the land area increased by 2.23 ± 4.51 km2, 14.28 ± 6.19 km2, and 23.31 ± 4.51 km2 during the periods of 1964–1995, 1995–2008, and 2008–2025, respectively. The time-series InSAR results and coastline change results demonstrate that coastal reclamation is the primary factor contributing to land subsidence in this study area. (3) Apart from land reclamation, driving factors such as precipitation and groundwater indicators also show a slight correlation with land subsidence.