Monetising Nigeria’s Flared Gas: A Site-Specific Financial Analysis of Three Utilisation Pathways Across Three Flare Sites

This study provides a site-specific, unlevered financial screening of gas-to-power, gas-to-pipeline, and gas-to-compressed-natural-gas (CNG) options at three Nigerian flare sites: Amukpe (1.16 MMscf/d), Oziengbe South (5.15 MMscf/d), and Oben (10.88 MMscf/d). The cases are evaluated from the perspective of an independent third-party developer using discounted cash-flow analysis. The base case results show that gas-to-power produces NPVs of −US$7.68 million, −US$17.30 million, and US$18.28 million at Amukpe, Oziengbe South, and Oben, respectively. Gas-to-pipeline produces −US$0.72 million, US$2.75 million, and US$7.32 million, while gas-to-CNG produces −US$3.97 million, US$7.20 million, and US$21.62 million. These results are conditional on the stated technical, commercial, and infrastructure assumptions because the analysis is equity-financed and excludes debt sizing, debt-service coverage, lender covenants, and contractual due diligence. This study therefore establishes a transparent comparison of three monetisation pathways under Nigeria’s third-party flare-commercialisation framework. Thus, investment and/or policy decisions must be made only with a clear identification of the required site data.