Modelling Habitat Suitability and Connectivity for Water Voles ( Arvicola amphibius ) in Scotland: Insights From Species Distribution and Circuit‐Based Connectivity Analysis
Eleonora Milea, Luca Nelli, Dominic J. McCaffertyABSTRACT
Introduction
Water voles (
Aims
We assessed the potential distribution and landscape connectivity of water vole populations in Scotland by: (i) identifying factors influencing their distribution, (ii) mapping habitat suitability, and (iii) evaluating connectivity across the landscape.
Methods
Using presence data from the National Biodiversity Network Atlas, we employed a Generalised Additive Model to predict suitable habitat across Scotland and applied circuit theory to assess connectivity and identify potential ecological corridors.
Results
The model showed strong predictive performance (AUC = 0.93). Distance from rivers emerged as the strongest predictor, with steep slopes, elevation, and high temperature negatively affecting suitability. Extensive coniferous woodland and intensively managed land cover were also associated with reduced suitability. Clear differences between urban and rural populations highlighted contrasting responses to land cover composition and hydrological features. Connectivity patterns showed strong spatial variation, with high landscape permeability across central and northern Scotland, and more fragmented connectivity in southern and eastern regions where suitable habitats were separated by high‐resistance land cover.
Discussion
These findings emphasise that patterns of habitat suitability and landscape connectivity together are relevant for understanding water vole distributions at the national scale. This integrated perspective can offer a framework for identifying priority areas for conservation, restoration, and reintroduction to support long‐term population viability.