DOI: 10.11648/j.ajere.20261103.12 ISSN: 2578-787X

Modelling Carbon Emissions and Associated Factors Towards Environmental Sustainability in Bangladesh

Arifur Rahman, Asadujjaman Razu, Mahbubar Rahman
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Understanding the underlying drivers of carbon emissions is critical for designing effective climate mitigation policies in highly vulnerable emerging economies. This study investigates the long-run and dynamic impacts of economic growth, fossil fuel energy consumption, population dynamics, and forest area on carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in Bangladesh from 1990 to 2022. Utilizing advanced time-series econometric techniques—including Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing, Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Canonical Cointegration Regression (CCR), and pairwise Granger causality tests—the analysis confirms a stable long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables. The empirical findings reveal that economic expansion and fossil fuel energy consumption significantly increase CO 2 emissions, yielding long-run elasticities of 0.58 and 1.58, respectively. Conversely, forest area exerts a substantial moderating effect; a 1% increase in forest cover reduces carbon emissions by approximately 8.65%, underscoring the critical role of forest ecosystems as vital carbon sinks. While population growth exhibits a statistically significant direct impact in the long-run model, it influences emissions indirectly by driving energy demand and economic activity. These results highlight the urgency of an integrated policy framework that simultaneously promotes sustainable growth paths, accelerates the clean energy transition, and strengthens forest conservation strategies.

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