Modelling and Forecasting tool in Greece: Pilot Study within the EUVABECO project

Background

Within the European Vaccination Beyond COVID-19 (EUVABECO) project, this study reports from the pilot implementation of a Modelling and Forecasting tool in Greece. The tool aims to predict and evaluate the impact of public health interventions on infectious disease dynamics.

Methods

An epidemiological model previously developed for Germany was adapted to the Greek context, using publicly available data on infections, hospitalizations, fatalities, variants of concern (Alpha, Delta, Omicron sublineages), vaccination uptake, and age- and sex-specific distributions Hospital treatment durations were estimated from a cohort of COVID-19 patients treated at a tertiary hospital in Crete (2020–2023).

Results

The model adequately reproduced epidemiological trends in Greece from February 2020 to July 2022, encompassing vaccination roll-out and successive variant waves Analysis of 2,081 hospitalized patients showed a mean length of stay of 7.2 days in general wards and 27.3 days in intensive care units (ICU), with longer durations among fatal cases (11.6 and 28.9 days). Compared with Germany, general ward stays were shorter (7.2 vs 11.5 days), whereas ICU stays for fatal cases were longer (28.9 vs 16.5 days). After incorporating such differences, model fit improved substantially. While case trajectories were comparable between Greece and Germany, Greece exhibited higher ICU occupancy and mortality from 2021 onward, reflecting differences in testing intensity and case ascertainment. The model was implemented as an interactive, web-based simulation platform enabling scenario analyses of vaccination strategies, non-pharmaceutical interventions, and variant emergence.

Conclusions

This pilot demonstrates the utility of the modelling tool for supporting evidence-informed decision-making in vaccination policies and public health interventions. Its flexibility and real-time adaptability make it a valuable resource for preparedness and response to future epidemics.

Key messages

• A modelling and forecasting tool was adapted and implemented for Greece context within a pilot study.

• The tool enables scenario analysis of infectious disease dynamics and can support future preparedness and response planning.