Modeling the Impact of Climate Change, CO2 Emissions, and Land Use Dynamics on Banana Production in China: Short- and Long-Run Evidence from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

Banana production plays a vital role in food security and livelihood in developing countries, yet scholarly attention has highlighted the growing attention on climate change, CO2 emissions, and land dynamic impacts on agricultural production; however, empirical evidence on short- and long-term effects of climate change and CO2 emissions on banana production in China remains limited. This study employed the autoregressive distributed lag error correction model (ARDL-ECM) framework using time-series data from China over three decades spanning 1991–2023, to investigate the long-run, short-run effects of CO2 emissions, precipitation, temperature, and production inputs of land and labor on banana production. The empirical results indicate that the CO2 emissions exert a significant and negative long-run effect on banana production. Precipitation exhibited a positive influence on banana production in China. Banana-harvested area presents a positive and significant impact on banana production, underscoring the importance of land management for long-run growth of banana production. Findings demonstrate that greater resilience, supported by advanced technology, a mechanized production system, and stronger institutional capacity, reduces climate impact on banana production. Study findings contribute to the empirical evidence to the climate–agriculture nexus in China and offer actionable policy for enhancing banana resilience in developing countries.