Modeling the effects of seasonal weather on rocket launch-ascent sonic boom footprints in Southern California

When rockets ascend, accelerate, and pitch over toward orbit, they can generate sonic booms audible on the ground over 100 km from the launch site, as observed with recent launches from Vandenberg Space Force Base. The locations where these booms arrive vary seasonally, with some areas experiencing them only at certain times of year. In this paper, the seasonal variation is explored and modeled using pcboom 7.5.0, with simulations run using measured and modeled weather profiles from 2020 to 2025. pcboom peak overpressure footprints were interpolated to four locations where sonic booms have been reported and measured: Carpinteria, Ojai, Ventura, and Oxnard. The probability of a sonic boom occurring at each location was higher in the winter and lower in the summer (all seasons defined in the northern hemisphere). Changes in the footprint location were linked to seasonal changes in weather. Specifically, the changes in upper-level winds (stratospheric and mesospheric) influenced large changes in the land area that received a sonic boom. Strategic seasonal launch scheduling for missions should be considered to enable launches along all azimuths while minimizing the occurrence of sonic booms on land.