Modeling of Crop Biomass Dynamics Under Winter Wheat–Maize Rotation and Erosion Control Agrotechnologies on Epicalcic Chernozem

Modeling crop development under different agrotechnologies is important not only for assessing the factors that affect their yields but also because of the role of vegetation in regulation of the hydrology regime. For this reason, interest in the plant module in the semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT is increasing. The model has to be supplied with a lot of information for running and testing, which can be achieved with ground-based, statistical and satellite data. The aim of the study is to determine the accuracy of the SWAT model to predict crop development by using ground-based and satellite data for LAI in the case of a 5-year field experiment. Two staple crops in rotation were monitored—winter wheat and maize—under different erosion control technologies (up-and-down conventional tillage, conventional contour tillage, and minimum contour tillage with inclusion of cover crop before maize) on sloping terrain on moderately eroded Epicalcic Chernozem in the region of Ruse, north Bulgaria. The remote sensing data from the Copernicus Sentinel-2 mission were used for estimation of LAI of both crops and verified against ground-based data in two ways—via a custom LAI script available through the Sentinel Hub cloud platform and as input to a machine learning quantile regression forests (QRF) model. The calibrated satellite-derived LAI, ground-based soil moisture and yields data were used to calibrate several SWAT model parameters (EPCO, ESCO, CN2, LAImax, HU, HI) and assess the model performance regarding these variables. Although a good temporal fit of the SWAT-modeled LAI data with the satellite data was achieved, the accuracy of predicted LAI is moderately high only in the last two years of the rotation (R2 = 60.4%). The accuracy of calibrated yields (R2 = 55.5%) is acceptable in four of the years. On average for the period, the applied erosion control agrotechnologies did not cause significantly different yields, but they are 14% higher compared to the up-and-down conventional tillage. The most sensitive SWAT parameters accounting for this effect are EPCO and ESCO.