Model‐Event Joint‐Driven Risk Assessment Method for Wind Turbine Failures in Sandy‐Gobi‐Desert Regions

ABSTRACT

Frequent sandstorm hazards in Sandy‐Gobi‐Desert regions pose a severe threat to the structural safety of wind turbines (WTs). Under the coupled excitation of degradation and impulsive shock processes, the resulting failure risk exhibits complex time‐varying characteristics. To address this, a model‐event joint‐driven risk assessment method for WT failures is proposed. In the model‐driven module, an impact load model for sand‐laden wind flow within a wind speed fluctuation cycle is derived by considering the superposition effect of wind and sand. Subsequently, the finite element method is employed to simulate the time‐varying fluctuations of the structural stress. In the event‐driven module, the degradation behavior of the WT is formulated as a composite event consisting of multiple parallel degradation processes. On this basis, a dynamic structural failure criterion is established using stress‐strength interference theory, accounting for the influence of degradation states on the thresholds of various failure modes. This allows for the development of a comprehensive failure probability model for WTs. Finally, the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed methodology are validated through simulation scenarios based on actual sandstorm meteorological data.