Model-Based Positive Generation Gaps and Smart EV Charging Potential: A 2020–2025 Case Study of Photovoltaics, Wind Power, and Hydropower

This study compares theoretical annual renewable generation with recorded grid injection from one Polish distribution system operator for 2020–2025. Across 1513 source-year records, the cumulative positive model–injection difference is 3148.304 GWh. Large sources contribute 96.00%, while wind contributes 92.75% under an assumed capacity factor of 0.24. An annual charging calculation uses a hypothetical fleet of 20,043 electric vehicles with a demand of 53.308 GWh/year. Assuming full eligibility of the positive difference and 90% conditional capture, large-source scenarios for 2025 cover 47.34%, 100.00% and 65.67% of demand for photovoltaics, wind and hydropower, respectively. At 10% eligibility, coverage falls to 4.75%, 91.12% and 6.57%. Scaling reference generation by ±20% gives positive differences of 1874.982–4429.287 GWh. In a sensitivity analysis, excluding nine implausible hydropower records reduces root mean square error from 3545.5 to 2078.4 MWh/(MW·year), without changing the positive total. These conditional accounting results identify priorities for data reconciliation and subsequent operational measurements. They do not measure curtailment or demonstrate temporal coincidence, network deliverability, realized charging potential or economic benefit.