Methodological Approaches and Challenges in Mapping Cross-Border Drug Flows and Their Determinants

Abstract

Understanding the structure and determinants of transnational drug trafficking flows remains a fundamental challenge for both empirical criminology and evidence-based policy. This article critically examines the methodological and epistemological obstacles involved in constructing and explaining cross-border drug flows at a macro level using network analysis. While reviewing the relevant literature, it focuses on two core challenges. First, measuring, mapping, and constructing the cross-border trafficking flow networks, while overcoming data quality hurdles. And second, testing theoretical hypotheses on the determinants of cross-border drug trafficking flows, using emerging models that account for the unique properties inherent in network data. Drawing on recent advances in social network analysis and applied criminology, the article interrogates the current approaches and explores avenues for improving the methodological approach of constructing and estimating drug flows, including issues of node definition, edge interpretation, and hypothesis testing. It argues that methodological progress will depend on cautious data integration, clearer treatment of missingness, and stronger collaboration between researchers and institutions.