DOI: 10.3390/e28080857 ISSN: 1099-4300

Metastability and Entropy Peaks in Antagonistic Multiplex Consensus Dynamics

Jack C. M. Hughes, Anna Kusmartseva, Glenn Muschert, Herbert F. Jelinek, Fedor V. Kusmartsev

Modern societies comprise overlapping communities whose opinions evolve on strongly interacting networks that are often mutually antagonistic. We introduce a minimal antagonistic multiplex consensus model in which each layer follows intra-layer majority-rule dynamics, while inter-layer interactions are inhibitory. A mean-field analysis shows that antagonistic coupling destabilizes the balanced state through an antisymmetric mode and favors two polarized absorbing states with opposite magnetization in the two layers. Network-averaged simulations confirm that small fluctuations near equal initial support determine which polarized state is ultimately reached: trajectories exhibit metastable delay, long convergence times, and a localized peak in the Shannon entropy of outcomes. A finite-size analysis with independent network realizations and bootstrap uncertainty estimates shows that the high-entropy interval narrows as Δr ∼N−γeff, with γeff=0.513 and a 95% bootstrap confidence interval [0.489,0.526], consistent with finite-size sharpening controlled by fluctuations in the initial imbalance. We also perform network topology checks and find that the qualitatively antagonistic mechanism persists beyond random-regular graphs. As an illustrative empirical application, we analyze county-level results from the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The vote-share and entropy landscapes separate low-entropy partisan strongholds from higher-entropy competitive counties. Our results suggest that antagonistic multiplex coupling provides a simple mechanism by which polarized attractors and localized outcome uncertainty can arise together.

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