Medium Range Weather Forecast Verification and Evaluation of Rainfall and Temperature for Vellore District in Tamil Nadu, India

Medium range weather forecasts along with weather-based agro advisories play an important role in supporting the farming community by reducing production losses caused by unfavorable weather conditions. Therefore, it is essential to assess the reliability and suitability of medium range weather forecasts for their further improvement and effective utilization. In the present study, the verification of medium range weather forecasts for Vellore, Tamil Nadu during 2022-23 was carried out with respect to rainfall and temperature. The seasonal forecast rainfall verification result revealed that the highest ratio score was observed in winter season (98.3%) followed by north east monsoon season (79.3%), summer (65.2%) and south west monsoon season (48.4%). The highest percentage (91.67%) of forecast usability for maximum temperature was observed during winter season and minimum temperature recorded in northeast monsoon (52.2) season. The RMSE for maximum temperature was found lower than minimum temperature indicating higher accuracy. Furthermore, there is scope of improvement in usability of rainfall mainly for monsoon season as well as temperature for more income of farming community of Vellore district of Tamil Nadu by following weather based agro advisories.