Mechanism and Optimization Path of Digital Technology for the Energy Transition in the Yellow River Basin Under Carbon Peaking

As a key energy base in China, the Yellow River Basin sees its energy transition and carbon peaking status closely linked to the timeline for achieving the dual carbon goals. Yet the energy transition across the Yellow River Basin remains arduous, and staged breakthroughs in carbon peaking are hard to achieve. Against this backdrop, digital technology offers new approaches to addressing this challenge. This study empirically investigates 99 cities at or above the prefectural level across the Yellow River Basin during 2013–2024. It analyzes the mechanisms of digital technology in the energy transition and applies the Kaya identity to predict carbon peaking times for these cities under different scenarios. The findings show that digital technology facilitates the energy transition across the Yellow River Basin by strengthening innovation in renewable energy technologies and investment in human capital. Moreover, carbon peaking pressure plays a positive moderating role in digital technology’s influence on the energy transition across the Yellow River Basin. Notably, digital technology boosts the energy transition across the Yellow River Basin more significantly in downstream areas and non-resource-based and non-traditional industrial base cities. Meanwhile, while digital technology can significantly promote local energy transition, it also produces negative spatial spillover effects. Finally, compared to the baseline scenario, cities across the Yellow River Basin reach carbon peaking earlier under the accelerated energy transition scenario.