Measuring the Release Rate of Rural Household Consumption Potential: Spatiotemporal Evolution and Configurational Pathways

Unlocking the potential of rural consumer markets holds significant importance for smoothing China’s domestic economic circulation and advancing comprehensive rural revitalization. This study therefore investigates the multiple conditional configurations associated with the release of rural residents’ consumption potential, using data from 2017 to 2024. This study proposes an analytical framework built upon digital divide theory that distinguishes access, usage, logistics and institutional divides, and examines spatiotemporal evolution and equifinal configurations through stochastic frontier analysis (SFA), kernel density estimation (KDE), Dagum Gini decomposition, and dynamic qualitative comparative analysis (QCA). The study reveals the following findings: (1) The consumption potential release rate (CPRR) of rural residents shows an overall upward trend, yet a “high potential, low release” disconnect persists; (2) regional disparities in the release rate mainly arise from transvariation intensity and intra-regional disparities; (3) four equifinal configurations are associated with high release rates, namely the logistics and e-commerce configuration, the digital inclusive finance configuration, the digital infrastructure configuration, and the all-factor synergistic configuration, with e-commerce entering rural areas and broadband access rate as important conditions associated with a high release rate; (4) low release rates are associated with lagging digital application and comprehensive infrastructure deficiency.