Means of Production Generated by Crop Production Sector Output: A Study of Market Symmetry

This study determines the size of the means-of-production markets (MMP) generated by Bulgarian crop production and assesses their comparability with crop product markets (PM). Eight component markets are analyzed: fertilizers, irrigation water, plant protection products, seeds and planting material, buildings and stationary equipment, agricultural machinery, technical and other services, and energy. The methodology integrates firm-level financial data from domestic producers, international trade statistics, and official national data. A detailed market reconstruction based on quantities, prices, and absolute and relative shares is conducted for the reference years 2023 and 2024, constituting the core analytical layer of the study. To test the structural stability of the symmetry relationship across a broader price cycle, the symmetry analysis is extended to the period 2021–2024 using official data aggregate for all markets. The symmetry coefficient (MMP/PM) shows structural comparability ranging from ½ to over ¾ between the two market systems over the full period, averaging 0.72 for 2023–2024. Price dynamics exert a stronger influence on market symmetry than volume changes. Crop product markets exhibit substantially greater price volatility than means-of-production markets. The combined economic contribution of Bulgarian crop production—integrating direct output value with the means-of-production markets it generates—amounted to over EUR 5756.3 million in 2024, substantially exceeding the total agricultural sector output reported in national accounts and implying a real contribution to GDP well above the officially recorded 3% share.