Mathematical Modeling of Transmission Dynamics of Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease

Maize lethal necrosis disease (MLND) poses a severe threat to maize production in Kenya and Eastern Africa, with yield losses reaching up to 100% if uncontrolled. The disease arises from coinfection by maize chlorotic mottle virus (MCMV) and sugarcane mosaic virus (ScMV), transmitted through vectors, seed, soil, and mechanical means. To better understand its epidemiology, this study develops a compartmental mathematical model describing MLND transmission dynamics. Stability analysis using the control reproduction number identifies threshold conditions for persistence or eradication. Numerical simulations confirm that high transmission rates and vector density drive rapid epidemics, whereas plant removal and vector mortality suppress prevalence. Sensitivity analysis highlights transmission parameters as the strongest positive drivers, underscoring the importance of integrated control strategies. Numerical simulation reveals that contamination levels strongly influence plant health and epidemic progression. Although interventions such as improved seed quality and vector suppression can reduce R ₀ below unity, MLND may still persist because of coinfection dynamics and environmental contamination. Hence, it is essential to complement these measures with integrated strategies including resistant cultivars, crop rotation, sanitation, and chemical control to curb the spread of MLND and safeguard maize production.