Maternal education and age at marriage as determinants of fertility in India: a generalized structural equation modeling analysis of National Family Health Survey-5 data
Sreelatha Devipriya, Pradeep R. Deshmukh, Yogesh Bahurupi, Priyanka YadavAbstract
Background:
India has experienced a substantial decline in its total fertility rate, now approaching the replacement level. Understanding the determinants of this transition is essential for informing policies on reproductive health, gender equity, and sustainable development. This study used generalized structural equation modeling (GSEM) with data from the National Family Health Survey-5 (NFHS-5) to examine the direct and indirect effects of key sociodemographic and behavioral factors on fertility. By evaluating these complex pathways, this study provides a comprehensive understanding of fertility determinants in India.
Materials and Methods:
We analyzed NFHS-5 data using GSEM in Stata 17. We modeled the outcome variable, number of children ever born, with a negative binomial distribution to account for overdispersion. The model simultaneously estimated the direct and indirect effects of the explanatory variables. We reported unstandardized beta coefficients, 95% confidence intervals, and
Results:
Higher maternal educational attainment and older age at marriage were the strongest predictors of lower fertility, each showing a significant inverse association with the number of children ever born. Advanced education was also linked to greater autonomy in contraceptive decision-making, improved financial independence, and a lower unmet need for family planning. In contrast, household wealth, contraceptive method, and paternal occupation were not significantly associated with fertility after multivariable adjustment. These findings highlight the independent and complementary roles of maternal education and delayed marriage in reducing fertility.
Conclusion:
Maternal education and age at marriage are the principal determinants of the decline in fertility in India. Beyond their direct effects on reducing childbearing, these factors strengthen women’s autonomy and influence reproductive decision-making, thereby contributing to sustained fertility decline. Strengthening female education and promoting delayed marriage should remain central to policies aimed at achieving reproductive health and sustainable population outcomes.